Grand Island, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KGID 110817
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and thunderstorms persist this morning, with
  redevelopment possible in the afternoon. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Dry and quiet weather is expected Tuesday-Friday.

- Heat returns late next week. Heat index values may exceed 100
  degrees Friday/Saturday.

- Rain/t-storm chances return to the area next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

As of 3am, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still
persist west of Highway 183, but this activity remains on a slow
weakening trend over the past few hours. A stronger complex of
thunderstorms continues across southern KS, with only light
stratiform rain extending north of I-70. Most of the area is
expected to remain dry through sunrise, but there could be some
localized fog with the light winds and remaining low-level
moisture.

Near term models then show a few showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping later in the morning (and especially into the
afternoon) as a upper level trough continues to slowly push
through the area. Instability and shear are rather limited
(~1000 J/kg MUCAPE...20kt 0-6km shear), so severe storms are not
expected. The main threats will be lightning and brief
downpours.

Whatever showers/storms develop should wane with sunset, and
most (if not all) activity should remain to our southeast Monday
night. This kicks off a pretty quiet period for most of this
week. A shortwave passing through the northern Plains may kick
off some storms well to our north Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but otherwise the upper level pattern remains pretty
quiet.

By late next week, ridging will build over the central CONUS,
allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s by Thursday/Friday,
and heat index values are expected to challenge 100 degrees in
many places on Friday.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast over the weekend, with
nightly chances for thunderstorms to roll out of western
Nebraska/Kansas and into our area. Temperatures also trend
slightly cooler for the weekend, partly due to uncertainty
surrounding these thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and storms from LBF to MCK is expected to
gradually diminish as they slowly translate eastward. Based on
near-term model guidance the potential for these to reach EAR
before sunrise is too low to include in this TAF (less than 20%
chance).

With light winds, near-term models are showing an increased
potential for stratus this morning. EAR is more favored than
GRI, but both locations have at least some chance (20-40%) to
see a period of IFR-MVFR ceilings in the 10-15Z timeframe.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms remain possible
through the daytime, but uncertainty in timing/coverage remains
too high for any inclusion in this TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels